US President Trump appears strained by ongoing USMCA discussions, while diplomatic friction with Iran remains unresolved. As surprising US employment figures emerged today, attention has quickly shifted to the anticipated inflation report arriving on Friday. After an initial uptick, Bitcoin‘s momentum faltered post-Wall Street’s market open, leading enthusiasts to question the overselling of digital currencies.
Is Bitcoin Finding Stability?
Having recently hit a low at $60,000, Bitcoin is presently steadying near $66,500, leaving the market taken aback by the rapid decline. K33 Research sees a silver lining, identifying positive signals for Bitcoin’s potential course.
K33, specializing in brokerage and research, interprets the past week’s aggressive sell-off as a potential signal of Bitcoin finding its footing. Vetle Lunde, K33’s Head of Research, highlighted “extreme edge signals” across ETF, spot, and derivatives areas, suggesting possible capitulation moments.
Fundamentals are echoing conditions reminiscent of the US banking crunch in March 2023. Key indicators like option skewness have hit stress levels akin to the heavy 2022 bear market.
Evidence mounts in favor of a possible trough. Continued sell pressure since late January has pushed Bitcoin’s daily RSI to just 15.9, the sixth-lowest figure since 2015, only surpassed by the downturns of March 2020 and November 2018.
What Do Market Metrics Reveal?
Lunde interprets these findings as part of an “exceptional period,” where several data points hint at a local bottom stage. February 6 saw perpetual swap funding rates dip to -15.46%, with a seven-day average of -3.5%, a figure absent since September 2024.
Options markets echoed this risk-averse sentiment, breaching levels seen during the FTX debacle. Meanwhile, the IBIT ETF saw record trading volumes on February 5, crossing $10 billion and exchanging 284.4 million shares—setting new highs.
Lunde contends that the existing volatility, volume figures, returns, option trends, and ETF influxes represent unprecedented “exceptional figures,” reinforcing the stance that a bottom might hold. K33’s experts foresee Bitcoin oscillating between $60,000 and $75,000, with the chance of deeper drops being minimal.
“This data suggests a notable period for Bitcoin, highlighting a potential local bottom,” stated Vetle Lunde from K33 Research.
As the cryptocurrency landscape remains volatile, the implications of current metrics could guide future investor strategies, offering renewed perspectives amid turbulent market conditions.
