Crypto analyst Bit Paine predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a value of $1 million by January 3, 2025, based on a detailed analysis of fundamental factors that could trigger this significant price increase.
Paine’s forecast is grounded on the expectation that around 750,000 new BTC will be mined over the next five years. He suggests that typically 20-30% of the current Bitcoin supply is sold during bull markets, but due to various compelling reasons, only 10-15% might actually enter circulation, potentially leading to a supply shock.
Compelling reasons highlighted by Paine include the aftermath of a prolonged bear market, an increase in Bitcoin maximalists, a decline in the significance of altcoins as an asset class, and Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a reserve asset. He anticipates an additional 2-6 million BTC entering the market, with the total circulating supply reaching approximately 2.75-6.75 million.
The primary driver of the predicted price surge is the expected capital inflow into the Bitcoin market, with Paine estimating that $1-5 trillion could enter the market over the next five years, driven by both institutional and individual investors.
Paine’s analysis aligns with the idea that most Bitcoin market gains typically occur in the first year following a block reward halving, characterized by speculative enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price recently surged past $45,000, reaching its highest level since April 2022, before experiencing a sharp decline due to rumors of potential SEC rejections of spot Bitcoin ETF applications.