According to expert Axel Adler Jr., the $35,000 zone could become a new accumulation area for short-term Bitcoin holders. Adler expressed this view in an article on November 26. Using historical data of Bitcoin, he analyzed the supply data from one week to 12 months and concluded this. According to the chart shared by Adler, short-term holders started accumulating when the Bitcoin price was around $18,000 in February and did not realize profits until Bitcoin reached $28,000.
What are the chances of Bitcoin reaching this price by the end of the year? According to CryptoQuant, at the time the article was written, the percentage of profitable Bitcoin supply was at 83.13%. This rate has shown a decrease from 84.36% since November 25. An upward trend in this metric could mean that investors are starting to realize their profits and this could trigger selling pressure that might lead to a drop in the Bitcoin price. However, a decrease in profitable supply could also mean that Bitcoin might have a chance to recover before the year-end. While $45,000 may seem like a distant target, there could be a chance for Bitcoin to reach $40,000.
For this to happen, the cryptocurrency needs to retest $38,000 by the end of November. Technically, the BTC/USD H4 chart shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 46.23. This suggests that sellers are dominating the market and it’s unlikely for BTC to reclaim the $38,000 level.
However, if the RSI value drops below 40.00, market participants may see it as an opportunity to purchase Bitcoin at a discounted price. If accumulation starts at this point, buying pressure could push BTC towards the $40,000 level. This bullish scenario is also confirmed by the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). At the time the article was written, it was observed that the 20 EMA was above the 50 EMA, which could suggest that BTC might trade well above the $37,000 level within a few weeks. Another important metric, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), can indicate the degree of profit realized by both long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH). High values of the ratio could indicate that LTHs are spending more profit compared to STHs.
