Recent analysis indicates that Bitcoin might be on the brink of a risky phase that usually precedes its halving event, often characterized by a dip in value. A crypto analyst, Rekt Capital, has forecasted that Bitcoin is nearing a period that historically aligns with a decrease in its price, as seen in previous cycles.
Historical Trends and Predicted Price Movements
Rekt Capital highlights that Bitcoin’s value traditionally falls between two to four weeks ahead of a halving. In past occurrences, the digital currency saw a significant decline—40% in 2016 and 20% in 2020—leading up to the event. A previous prediction by the same analyst anticipated a rally roughly 60 days before the halving, succeeded by a downturn close to the event. This pattern appeared to hold true when Bitcoin surged in February and overtook its past peak before witnessing a recent pullback.
Market Expectations and Expert Projections
As the anticipated halving event approaches on April 20, Bitcoin has already started to show a reduction in its value, with an 8% decline from its new record high, based on Tradingview statistics. Despite this, there’s optimism among industry leaders.
Richard Teng of Binance expressed his view at a Bangkok event, forecasting that Bitcoin is on track to set new records, potentially rising above $80,000 by year-end. He cited new investments by institutional players as a driving factor. Meanwhile, Kris Marszalek of Crypto.com referred to the current price fluctuation as a correction that stabilizes the market, noting the relatively modest volatility compared to previous periods.
These projections point to a Bitcoin landscape of both upcoming challenges and promising highs, with demand surpassing dwindling supply, but cautioning that the path ahead may be bumpy with inevitable price swings.