The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price has paved the way for significant altcoin growth, although some cryptocurrencies still lag behind expectations. Notably, Avalanche (AVAX) has seen a 15% increase, yet it remains confined within a narrow trading range. This raises questions about the sustainability and potential duration of this trend. What are the underlying factors influencing AVAX’s current state, and what does the overall market outlook suggest?
Why is AVAX Stagnant?
Despite a notable 15% price increase, Avalanche (AVAX) is struggling to break free from a month-long consolidation phase. A primary reason for this is the rapidly expanding circulating supply. The market is set to receive hundreds of millions of dollars worth of new AVAX tokens, making it difficult for demand to drive the price up even during bullish periods. For instance, on May 22, an additional 10 million AVAX tokens valued at approximately $347 million will enter circulation, followed by gradual releases thereafter.
By the end of August 2024, a similar unlock will occur, bringing the current circulating supply from 382.5 million to 478.8 million. This translates to an additional 96 million AVAX tokens entering the market, equating to a $3.5 billion increase in circulating supply. Given the current market cap of $14 billion, this is a substantial figure that could impact the token’s price dynamics.
What Are the Future Predictions for AVAX?
In the short term, AVAX has been unable to escape its 1-month consolidation period. Investors who have held AVAX for less than a year but more than a month see price hikes as chances to take profits, especially with the upcoming $3.5 billion token unlocks. This group of investors, who make up about 40% of the market, is motivated to buy at lower levels, adding downward pressure on the price. Last month, AVAX made three unsuccessful attempts to break through the $39 resistance level and continues to find buyers below this threshold.
If short- and medium-term investors can resist the urge to sell for profits, a new attempt to reach the $50 level could be possible if $39 becomes a support level.
Key Insights for Investors
Investors need to consider the following concrete points:
- The rapid increase in AVAX’s circulating supply could hinder significant price gains.
- Upcoming token unlocks worth $3.5 billion will likely introduce additional selling pressure.
- Short- and medium-term traders’ profit-taking behavior affects AVAX’s price stability.
- Sustained bullish momentum may require strong demand to offset the increasing supply.
The strategic token releases for partnerships, team incentives, and staking rewards are additional factors contributing to ongoing selling pressure that limits AVAX’s upward movement.