Bitcoin is currently grappling with significant short-term hurdles due to diminishing interest from investors and growing macroeconomic challenges. Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered has highlighted that troublesome signals from the U.S. economy and lower expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have triggered sharp declines in cryptocurrency markets. This shift leaves Bitcoin at risk for further downward trends.
How is Macroeconomic Uncertainty Affecting Bitcoin?
Increased unpredictability in global markets is largely because hopes for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve have disappeared. This evolving macroeconomic setting is putting additional pressure on cryptocurrencies, as indicated by Standard Chartered. As a response to these dynamics, the bank has revised Bitcoin’s forecast, reducing its 2026 year-end price target from $150,000 to $100,000, and pushing the expectation for reaching $100,000 past 2025.
Are Institutional Players Retreating?
Yes, and the rising outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs further weakens demand, according to Standard Chartered. The bank’s latest findings reveal that ETF holdings have shrunk by nearly 100,000 Bitcoins since their peak in October 2025. The majority of these were purchased at about $90,000, meaning many investors are facing unrealized losses, which may drive more selling should market sentiment worsen.
Adding to the concern, institutional investors are scaling back their involvement. A downturn in corporate treasury purchases has notably reduced large-scale demand for digital assets. Kendrick has pointed out that the nexus of ETF inflows and market momentum now supersedes institutional buy-ins.
About half of Bitcoin circulating supply remains profitable, a figure standard for bear cycles, yet indicative of a subdued market. This contraction in profitable holders exacerbates market pressure, fostering a more vigilant outlook among traders and institutions.
Recently, Bitcoin experienced a drop to $60,008 — the lowest in 16 months — before stabilizing around $67,000. ethereum too is facing uncertainty, with predictions it could revisit lows near $1,400 if the market continues to face challenges.
- Bitcoin’s price target for year-end 2026 adjusted to $100,000 from $150,000.
- ETF Bitcoin holdings have decreased by roughly 100,000 coins since October 2025.
- Only about 50% of Bitcoins in circulation are currently profitable, reflecting market difficulties.
However, Standard Chartered remains hopeful over the long term, notwithstanding current issues. While recent price changes haven’t led to platform failures as they did in prior cycles, network activity improvements suggest resilience in the crypto ecosystem.
“The ambitious $500,000 Bitcoin target for 2030 is still intact,” emphasized Standard Chartered, affirming faith in Bitcoin’s future prospects.
