Bitcoin‘s recent volatility has captured attention as its price settled around $86,600 by Thursday, following a transient surge to $90,000 earlier in the week. This fluctuation underscores the impact of global liquidity challenges and economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about the future Federal Reserve chair potentially reducing interest rates have brought monetary policy expectations within the cryptocurrency world back into focus.
What Triggered Bitcoin’s Brief Jaunt Above $90,000?
According to Nick Ruck of LVRG Research, Bitcoin’s recent price swings were fueled by a global retreat from risk, deceleration in ETF activity, and a drawdown in derivative market leverage. Additionally, a tighter link with stock market behaviors, given current monetary policy uncertainties, has been observed. Moreover, the usual year-end portfolio adjustments are impacting investor confidence amid waning hopes for a traditional “Santa Claus rally.”
Fed’s Future Direction: Will Interest Rates Drop Further?
Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, views the $85,000–$86,000 price bracket as a recalibrated position rather than a seasonal shift. He notes that after a rapid ascent, market activity has decelerated, leverage has stabilized, and the market is waiting for a new catalyst. Liu predicts a volatile but generally sideways market trend unless new liquidity emerges.
Liu dismisses fears of an imminent “crypto winter.” He emphasizes that the market’s resilience hinges on maintaining Bitcoin’s price above the “True Market Mean” of roughly $81,000. Should the price dip below this threshold, the risk of a more severe downturn increases.
Both analysts have noted the persistence of macroeconomic uncertainties as 2026 approaches. Despite the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that another reduction is not forthcoming in January. Market predictions vary, with a significant probability placed on rates remaining unchanged.
“After Powell’s exit, the next Fed chair could be inclined towards significantly lowering interest rates,” stated Trump, as reported by Reuters.
Trump’s statement comes amidst his prediction that the next Fed chair will likely advocate for lower interest rates. Notably, he plans to nominate a successor “by the beginning of the new year.” Trump has already met with Christopher Waller, a Fed member supportive of cryptocurrencies, while other candidates for the chair position include Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.
- Interest rates in the U.S. are presently between 3.50% and 3.75%.
- CME Group’s FedWatch estimates a 73.4% chance of no rate cut next month.
- Trump aims for U.S. benchmark rates to drop to 1% or below.
As Bitcoin grapples with its volatile nature, the role of future monetary policies and macroeconomic dynamics remains critical in shaping its trajectory. The anticipation surrounding the new Federal Reserve chair’s stance on interest rates continues to hold weight in the broader financial environment.
