The anticipation of a bull market has suffered a severe setback as nearly all altcoin projects, including Cardano (ADA), have plummeted to prices unseen in a year due to a broader market downturn. At the time of writing, ADA’s value stands at $0.30, a level last observed in November 2023. This article examines the impact of this decline on token holders and explores potential future scenarios.
What’s Happening on the Cardano Front?
The sharp descent in ADA’s value marks the most significant three-day selling trend since the 2022 bear market. While Cardano has the potential to bounce back, data from OMAP suggests the path to recovery isn’t straightforward. IOMAP categorizes addresses based on profits, losses, and thresholds at diverse price ranges, revealing the strength of support or resistance at various levels.
According to IntoTheBlock data, the number of addresses in profit between $0.28 and $0.30 is far fewer than those at a loss at $0.31. Specifically, 106,850 addresses hold 572.21 million tokens at $0.31, whereas only 35,460 addresses are in profit, holding 451.95 million tokens between $0.28 and $0.30.
Will ADA Maintain Support at $0.30?
Due to the disparity between these addresses, Cardano might struggle to maintain its $0.30 support level. If this support fails, ADA could experience another decline, potentially falling to $0.28. Additionally, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Long/Short Difference, recorded at -10.79%, indicates that long-term holders are currently less profitable than short-term holders, suggesting a bearish trend.
A further drop could signify the cryptocurrency is entering a bear phase, as a -19.33% reading historically indicates an end to a bullish cycle. Should ADA’s price drop again, increased selling pressure is likely.
ADA Chart Analysis
Since August 2, multiple sell signals have appeared on Cardano’s daily chart, accelerating its decline. The Supertrend, an indicator that generates buy and sell signals, was above ADA when the price was $0.42, suggesting a sell signal. Similarly, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR), another directional indicator, showed a sell signal when ADA was trading at $0.42, with dotted lines positioned above the price.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor ADA’s support levels closely, especially around $0.28 to $0.30.
- Watch for sell signals on ADA’s daily chart, specifically from indicators like Supertrend and Parabolic SAR.
- Consider the disparity in the number of profitable addresses versus those at a loss for deeper market insights.
The current market structure indicates weakness, suggesting that ADA may face further corrections. The Fibonacci retracement technique, which uses percentages to identify support and resistance points, backs this prediction. ADA’s price is below the 23.6% nominal retracement, signaling bear dominance. If selling pressure mounts, the cryptocurrency could drop to the $0.27 level.