QCP Capital, known for their market predictions, have shared their latest insights, focusing on significant details about the current and short to medium-term market outlook. They highlight the impact of the recent Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, particularly noting the outflows from GBTC since its transformation from a trust to an ETF, which has seen $1.17 billion in outflows. This shift was anticipated as GBTC has been trading at a discount since 2020, reaching as low as -48% at the start of 2023.
The cumulative volume of the newly traded ETFs reached $9.8 billion in three days, with GBTC alone accounting for $4.6 billion. The question now is how much more of GBTC’s current $25.4 billion in total assets will exit.
Following the ETF approval, Bitcoin approached $49,000 but failed to surpass it, stabilizing around $42,500 for four days. This pullback, caused by nearly $5 billion in spot sales, was exacerbated by the SEC’s dampening of ETF excitement. QCP Capital suggests that all eyes are on GBTC outflows and the potential for a Spot ETH ETF approval, which could lead to Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin in the medium term.
Experts anticipate that Ethereum’s price may rise faster than Bitcoin’s in the coming months, especially with the SEC’s decision announcements on a Spot ETH ETF expected by the end of this month and mid-year. These announcements will be shared as breaking news updates every Sunday.
Lastly, QCP Capital is monitoring macroeconomic factors, including the January FOMC meeting, February NFP, and CPI pressures. They expect a discussion on the pace of balance sheet reduction and consensus in the market that the Fed will slow down the QT pace, though the specifics remain unknown.