Two leading asset management firms in the United States, Bitwise Asset Management and GraniteShares, have taken a groundbreaking step by filing requests with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) directly linked to significant American elections. This ambitious move is seen as a shift from conventional investment methodologies and highlights a rising curiosity about integrating prediction markets into standard financial systems.
New Funds Ride the Political Rollercoaster
Under its innovative “PredictionShares” series, Bitwise plans to introduce six new ETFs on the New York Stock Exchange. These funds are specifically designed to reflect significant political milestones such as the presidential election in 2028 and the congressional elections in 2026. Investors will have the chance to stake their positions based on which political factions they believe will hold power in essential government branches, including the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives.
Each of these ETFs is crafted to invest at least 80% of its capital in event contracts that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees. These contracts offer payouts based on the occurrence or non-occurrence of a specified political event, thus presenting investors with both the inherent volatility and risk of outcome-centric financial products.
How Are US Regulators Adapting?
In light of the growing trend toward outcome-focused investment tools, the CFTC is revisiting its regulatory guidelines. The popularity of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which offer prediction contracts on various topics ranging from election results to economic forecasts, prompts these revisions.
GraniteShares, following Bitwise’s lead, has introduced a suite of similar products, illustrating the expanding appeal of transforming event-driven prediction contracts into mainstream financial tools. According to Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart, these initiatives signify a broader movement towards incorporating novel asset classes into the financial world.
Potential Impact of Prediction-Based Funds
If sanctioned, these pioneering ETFs will enable investors to delve into markets forecasting election outcomes through traditional brokerage services. The valuation of these funds will reflect real-time market dynamics, survey results, and ongoing political scenarios.
Other companies are also joining the fray; Roundhill Investments sought approval for a similar ETF in February 2026. These ventures underscore the escalating demand for financial tools that allow stakeholders to speculate on crucial political happenings.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart remarks that proposals linked to electoral outcomes hint at a transformative period in how financial markets relate to emerging investment platforms.
The SEC’s decision on these groundbreaking ETFs remains uncertain. However, the influx of applications related to prediction-market-based funds signals that the sector is at the cusp of embracing a novel era of politically oriented investments, assuming regulatory adjustments follow suit.
