Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency of Ethereum, has suffered significant losses against Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year, seeing a decline of more than 35 percent. Experts predict this trend may continue, potentially ushering in another correction phase for ETH/BTC.
Are Technical Indicators Hinting at Further Declines?
Yes, the technical analysis suggests a bleak outlook for the ETH/BTC pair as it grapples with a persistent descending trendline that has acted as a formidable barrier since 2022. This pattern seems reminiscent of a similar trend that resulted in a massive 70 percent drop from 2024 to 2025. Recently, in August 2025, ETH/BTC retested this trendline only to be rebuffed by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month exponential moving average.
The rejection has propelled the pair further downward, falling below the 20-month exponential average support at 0.034 BTC. These signs indicate that bearish sentiment continues to dominate, and a prolonged downturn could push the pair to 0.0176 BTC in 2026, marking a 40 percent decline from its current valuation.
Why is Sell Pressure Intensifying?
This intensification is largely due to increasing sell pressure indicated by rising ETH reserves on Binance, the leading cryptocurrency exchange. As of May, Binance held approximately 3.62 million ETH, equating to 24.6 percent of all ETH deposits across exchanges. Unlike Ethereum, Bitcoin’s reserves are dwindling on Binance, as reported by CryptoQuant.
The growth in exchange-held reserves typically signals that more assets are poised for sale, which tends to drive prices down. Conversely, when reserves decrease, it often implies that investors are shifting their focus to long-term storage of their assets. This trend illustrates a mounting supply of ETH contrasted with a tightening BTC liquidity.
“Ethereum’s weakness is seen as a fundamental shift that aligns with declining momentum in the ‘ultrasound money’ narrative over recent years. In contrast, Bitcoin’s strength is attributed to accumulation by institutional investors and an increasing presence in Wall Street portfolios.”
Ethereum’s decline is underpinned by several key factors, including:
– ETH struggles with a long-term descending trendline.
– Rising ETH reserves on major exchanges like Binance.
– Declining prominence of the Ethereum narrative.
ETH’s declining market health is not solely based on technical data but also fundamental market dynamics. Bitcoin is making strides, notably with institutional backing that underscores its role as a market dominator.
Bitcoin’s adoption by major Wall Street firms reinforces its leading position, highlighting the widening rift between it and Ethereum. This shift is seen as a pivotal factor in Bitcoin’s strengthened stance in the crypto market ecosystem.
