A recent report from Coin Metrics, a crypto intelligence company, has shed light on the impracticality of 51% attacks against Bitcoin and Ethereum by nation-states due to prohibitive costs. Their study introduced the “Total Cost of Attack” (TCA) metric, outlining the financial unviability of such malicious endeavors.
New Metric Calculations Discourage Blockchain Hostilities
Lucas Nuzzi, Kyle Waters, and Matias Andrade from Coin Metrics put forward the TCA metric on February 15. The metric assesses the expenses linked to orchestrating a 51% attack on blockchain networks, showcasing that the financial outlays far outweigh potential gains for attackers, thereby discouraging such actions.
The researchers illustrated the staggering costs involved, citing an example where a billion-dollar profit would necessitate an initial outlay of forty billion dollars, yielding a meager 2.5% return. They highlighted the example of Bitcoin, where an attack would require an investment of approximately 20 billion dollars for 7 million ASIC mining rigs, which exceeds market availability.
A 51% attack grants a malicious party over half the mining power in networks like Bitcoin or control over a significant portion of staked assets in Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system, allowing them to alter or halt transactions and engage in double-spending.
The report also addressed and dismissed the feasibility of a 34% attack on Ethereum by Lido validators, despite the growth of Liquid Staking Derivative (LSD) providers such as LidoDAO. Such an attack would necessitate six months to execute, cost in excess of 34 billion dollars, and involve managing over 200 nodes with considerable cloud computing expenses.
Industry Expert Highlights Study’s Critical Insights
Nic Carter from Castle Island Ventures praised the report for its in-depth and first-of-a-kind analysis, stressing its importance in dispelling myths and speculative notions regarding the feasibility of 51% attacks on major blockchain platforms.