Recent activity in the cryptocurrency market has led many experts to question whether there is a connection between Bitcoin‘s (BTC) price performance and Republican candidate Donald Trump’s prospects in the US presidential elections. However, market data has shown no expected correlation between these two variables.
What Are the Expectations and Realities?
Following Trump’s meeting with Bitcoin miners in mid-June, numerous cryptocurrency market analysts tried to establish a link between Trump’s performance in betting markets and Bitcoin’s price movements. Despite various events, including an assassination attempt on Trump in July and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris regaining strength, analyses indicated no significant correlation between these factors and BTC prices.
FalconX’s extensive analysis spanning from June 1 to August 15 revealed no clear relationship between the three-day change in BTC price and Trump’s election chances. According to their findings, no noticeable connection emerged between the Republicans’ success in the election and Bitcoin’s price during this period.
What Are the Other Factors Affecting Prices?
There are much stronger influences on Bitcoin price than Trump’s election chances. These include expectations of US monetary policy and the anticipated large supply of Bitcoin.
For instance, aggressive Bitcoin sales in Germany’s Saxony state and concerns over the potential release of supply held by Mt. Gox creditors are significant factors limiting BTC price movements. According to David Lawant, while there was no relationship between election probabilities and BTC price during this period, this could change as election day approaches.
Concrete Insights
- Experts found no connection between Bitcoin prices and Trump’s election chances.
- FalconX’s analysis did not reveal any clear relationship between BTC price and election outcomes.
- Stronger factors like US monetary policy have a more substantial impact on Bitcoin prices.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s price movements appeared unaffected by Trump’s election chances, other more potent factors such as US monetary policy and supply concerns continue to influence BTC prices. As the election day nears, market data might start to reflect election-related news as a critical factor affecting Bitcoin’s value.