Jurien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, has revised his outlook on Bitcoin, foreseeing the potential onset of a “crypto winter” by 2026. Timmer reflects on Bitcoin’s October high around $125,000, which aligns with its historical four-year cycles. Through his analysis shared online, he suggests that Bitcoin may face a downturn in 2026, with historical bear markets spanning approximately a year. He identifies a support band between $65,000 and $75,000 as vital.
What Implications Do the Four-Year Cycles Hold?
Timmer’s theory stresses the rhythm of Bitcoin, closely tied to its four-year block reward halving cycle. His review indicates that the current cycle mirrors previous ones when viewed through pricing and timing lenses. However, he expresses concern that Bitcoin’s momentum might slow down as this cyclical phase completes.
The October peak at about $125,000 follows a 145-month rise, fitting predicted timelines. Timmer anticipates that potential subdued performance in 2026 could mark a pause in Bitcoin’s momentum, consistent with his previous observations of year-long “winter” phases.
Why Does Gold Shine as Bitcoin Stumbles?
Despite lingering long-term optimism for Bitcoin, Timmer draws comparisons between Bitcoin’s current weakness and gold’s strength in 2025. Gold has significantly outpaced global monetary increases, with a stellar 65% rise since the year’s start. Conversely, Bitcoin has yet to maintain comparable resilience during recent price dips.
Timmer opines that gold retaining its gains is symptomatic of a robust upward trend. However, he sees a weak forecast for Bitcoin achieving a comparable “mean reversion” with gold in the short term.
In his reflections, Timmer points towards a conservative outlook for Bitcoin in the near future, focusing on the $65,000–$75,000 price range. His speculation suggests that 2026 might be another significant transitional phase post-halving.
– Historical data on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle correlates with recent price movements, indicating a potential pattern.
– Despite a consistent long-term outlook, Timmer foresees short-term challenges, particularly with global economic indicators like gold outperforming.
– A $65,000–$75,000 price range remains a critical focal point for investors monitoring Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Reflecting on these dynamics,
“My sentiment as a secular bull remains strong, but it’s crucial to observe these transitional cycles and market comparisons closely,”
notes Timmer, as he ponders Bitcoin’s journey in the coming years.
