As 2024 approaches, predictions about the USD/TRY exchange rate are emerging, indicating a continued depreciation of the Turkish Lira. Seven international institutions have provided forecasts, all suggesting an increase in the dollar value against the lira.
HSBC predicts the dollar will reach 33 TRY by the end of 2024, representing the lowest forecast among the predictions. On the other hand, Deutsche Bank’s more optimistic projection places the dollar at 38 TRY by year-end.
Similarly, Morgan Stanley agrees with Deutsche Bank’s forecast of 38 TRY for the dollar by the end of 2024. Citibank expects an even higher rate, predicting the dollar will rise to 40 TRY.
Standard & Poor’s and Goldman Sachs both foresee the dollar reaching 40 TRY, with Goldman Sachs setting a slightly higher target of 40.70 TRY. Barclays provides the highest forecast, anticipating the dollar will climb to 43.80 TRY by the end of 2024.
The potential devaluation of the Turkish Lira against the dollar reflects economic challenges such as high inflation and fiscal deficits in Turkey. This could lead to increased inflationary pressures due to higher import costs and impact individuals’ purchasing power, raising concerns about the country’s economic health and its ability to service foreign-denominated debt.