Markus Thielen, the founder of 10X Research, has forecasted that Gary Gensler, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), will step down within the first two months of 2025, shortly after President Joe Biden’s term concludes. Thielen’s prediction is rooted in the historical trend where SEC Chairmen typically resign when a new administration takes over. He emphasized that Gensler’s role would become untenable if Donald Trump wins the presidential election.
Trump’s Election and Cryptocurrency Market
Thielen highlighted President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election as a crucial factor, suggesting it increases Trump’s chances of returning to the White House. According to Thielen, no other candidate appears to have the credibility to challenge Trump effectively, making his potential victory significant for the cryptocurrency market. A Trump administration, perceived as more favorable towards crypto, could bring positive changes for Bitcoin. Thielen believes Gensler, whose term formally ends in June 2026, would resign by January or February 2025 under these circumstances.
Criticisms of Gensler’s Crypto Stance
Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, has also been vocal in criticizing Gensler, labeling him as the worst person to oversee cryptocurrency regulation due to his outdated and overly politicized policies. Such criticisms strengthen the likelihood of Gensler stepping down if Trump is elected. Thielen points to several bullish indicators for the crypto market, suggesting that positive developments could be on the horizon.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Monitor political developments closely, as they can significantly impact market dynamics.
- Consider potential announcements, such as Trump’s rumored declaration of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, which could drive substantial price increases.
- Exercise caution regarding profit-taking or shorting Bitcoin before major political events, as these could trigger market surges.
Despite the prevailing political uncertainty in the United States, numerous analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future and the broader cryptocurrency market. The belief is that the most challenging phase of Bitcoin’s price volatility is now behind us, partly due to the German government’s sales and the collapse of the crypto exchange Mt. Gox. Analysts anticipate the market is on the cusp of recovery and growth, buoyed by favorable political developments and rising Bitcoin adoption.