Crypto market maker GSR Markets has forecasted a substantial increase in the price of Solana (SOL) following the potential approval of a spot Solana ETF in the United States. The firm speculates that in an ideal scenario, SOL’s price could soar ninefold, and even in a bearish scenario, a 1.4-fold rise is anticipated. VanEck’s unexpected application for a spot Solana ETF has added weight to these predictions.
What is Solana’s Potential?
In a report dated June 27, GSR Markets included Solana as part of the “big three in the crypto space” alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. They examined the likelihood of Solana being the next cryptocurrency to obtain spot ETF approval from US regulators. This analysis has generated considerable excitement, particularly with VanEck’s recent application for a spot Solana ETF. According to GSR, such ETFs could capture 14% of the market flows seen since spot Bitcoin ETFs were introduced in January.
GSR’s optimistic scenario projects Solana’s price could leap from its current $149 to over $1,320, elevating its market cap to $614 billion. Even in conservative scenarios, price increases of 1.4 and 3.4 times are forecasted. Including staking rewards, these figures could be even higher, although staking is not permitted in approved Ethereum ETFs, potentially limiting the increase.
Why Are Analysts Skeptical?
Despite GSR’s positive outlook, skepticism exists among analysts like Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas. They argue that significant regulatory shifts, such as a new US President or a different SEC Chairman, would be necessary for a spot Solana ETF to gain traction. Current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s classification of SOL as a security and ongoing lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase further complicate the approval process.
VanEck’s application followed a similar move by Canadian crypto asset manager 3iQ just a week earlier. It remains uncertain if other major firms like Franklin Templeton, which have praised Solana, will seek spot Solana ETFs in the future.
Key Takeaways for Investors
• GSR Markets’ predictions could lead to significant price movements for Solana.
• Approval of a spot Solana ETF could capture a notable portion of market flows since Bitcoin ETFs launched.
• Analysts remain skeptical due to regulatory hurdles and current SEC stances.
Globally, the value of Solana-based exchange-traded products already exceeds $1 billion, reflecting growing interest and recognition. Despite the challenges in obtaining regulatory approval in the US, ongoing discussions suggest it might eventually happen.