Senior crypto analysts from Bloomberg suggest that the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved in the U.S. has risen above 90%. However, participants in the crypto market on Polymarket have grown more pessimistic, reducing the probability due to recent betting patterns.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the SEC’s potential to reject proposals, stating there’s a small window for such an outcome, which he now sees as a 5% chance. This contrasts with his previous 90% prediction in November, which was based on updated filings indicating a positive trajectory for providers.
Crypto market participants on Polymarket have collectively bet approximately $500,000 on the postponement or rejection of the ETF approval, showing a decline in optimism compared to last week’s 90% likelihood.
The majority of the crypto market is anticipating the SEC’s upcoming decisions, which could lead to the introduction of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs for professional investors in the U.S. A regulated offering is expected to attract billions in Bitcoin demand, making it one of the most significant catalysts in the asset’s history.
Over a dozen applicants, including BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity, hope to launch the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Recent amended filings on behalf of these issuers have joined last month’s modified S-1 applications, addressing feedback and stirring discussions on the imminent SEC decisions.