Eighteen days have passed since the US government entered a shutdown, causing non-critical federal employees to be furloughed. This disruption has delayed numerous important reports, including some relating to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other significant economic matters. A looming question emerges: how will these delays influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at the month’s end?
Impact on Federal Economic Reports
The Fed is scheduled to determine its interest rate policy by the end of October. Yet, a major setback in releasing critical economic data due to the shutdown poses challenges. Market trends, influenced by weak job numbers, have created expectations for a potential interest rate reduction. The absence of key data has left officials speculating on the exact economic situation.
Inflation statistics that were due to be released have been postponed. There is a possibility that these figures might be available if the shutdown resolves soon, maybe by October 24th, which is crucial for the Fed’s decision-making. “Operating without this essential data significantly complicates our deliberations,” acknowledged Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Could This Lead to Interest Rate Cuts?
Matthew Luzzetti from Deutsche Bank notes that given the data shortfall, a 25 basis point reduction appears most feasible. “Without precise data, it’s challenging to argue for aggressive measures,” he stated. Historical precedence shows that data interruptions severely affect decision-making, a scenario the Fed has faced thrice in the past 30 years.
How does this influence the cryptocurrency market? Current projections showing job losses and limited inflation imply that even future data releases may highlight similar trends. However, some believe this delay could benefit the cryptocurrency landscape due to optimistic forecasts.
As the Federal Reserve moves toward its December meeting, it will have an opportunity to analyze a fuller dataset, comprising September through November figures. Consequently, there is a strong belief that continued rate reductions could occur in both the upcoming meetings this year, benefiting the crypto market.
Concrete insights suggest:
- Rate cuts are anticipated in October and December.
- Cryptocurrency markets may react positively to rate decisions.
- December’s meeting will give a clearer indication of next year’s rate strategy.
The Federal Reserve’s approach seemingly supports cryptocurrencies despite current data limitations. However, future unexpected economic reports could spark significant market volatility.
