Bitcoin experienced a significant decline following the announcement by Japan’s Central Bank to raise the interest rate from 0% to 0.25%. This decision had a notable impact on the US stock market, as investors typically borrow Japanese Yen at low rates to invest in US assets. Consequently, this shift adversely affected risk assets, leading to further corrections in Bitcoin’s value.
What is Happening on the Bitcoin Front?
On July 29, Bitcoin recorded its third lower high (LH3), briefly reaching $70,000 before experiencing a 25% decline. This pattern of lower highs, previously observed in April and June 2024, had led to significant corrections of 23% and 26%, respectively. The sudden downturn surprised many, with Bitcoin failing to maintain support levels at $60,000 and $57,000, eventually falling below $50,000.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin’s price had fallen below the medium-risk lower limit for the fifth time, targeting $48,000 as a new support level. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, suggested that Bitcoin should begin to pull back around $52,000. However, if it fails to hold above $50,000, the next major support level would be approximately $44,000.
Bitcoin Chart Analysis
Bitcoin’s price trajectory indicates that it might retest lower levels. Intotheblock data reveals that major investors’ buying levels are even lower than the current trend suggests. Around 6.39 million addresses hold 2.38 million Bitcoin at an average price of $42,446, implying that retesting this level could result in an additional 18% correction from the current market value.
Technically, a price range between $44,000 and $48,000 appears logical. This range aligns with a weekly order block formation and two other indicators. Therefore, the likelihood of Bitcoin retesting its weekly 100-exponential moving average is high, with the 0.5 Fibonacci line situated at $44,672.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor support levels at $48,000 and $44,000 closely.
- Be prepared for potential additional correction if Bitcoin retests $42,446.
- Consider the impact of Japan’s interest rate changes on broader financial markets.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price dynamics remain influenced by macroeconomic factors such as Japan’s interest rate hike. Investors should stay vigilant and consider these technical levels when making decisions.
