Mt. Gox has transferred $3.1 billion worth of Bitcoin to BitGo, significantly reducing its holdings from the defunct exchange. This reduction suggests that the exchange’s prolonged supply pressure may soon come to an end. Historically, the potential release of Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin has been a source of market concern, leading to uncertainty among investors.
What Were the Transfer Details?
According to Arkham data, the transfer on July 30 cut the trustee’s balance to $3.06 billion. The transaction involved 33,960 BTC, worth approximately $2.25 billion. Contrary to expectations, this large-scale move did not exert significant market pressure. The Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric on Kraken indicated a minor increase, suggesting marginal selling pressure.
Glassnode data corroborated this by showing minimal sell-side impact on major exchanges like Kraken and Bitstamp. Unlike previous Bitcoin sales by the German government, Mt. Gox’s recent repayment did not depress the market. Thus, the remaining $3 billion held by Mt. Gox could potentially be moved without severely affecting market dynamics.
Which Factors Affect the Market?
However, the US government remains a significant market influencer, with about $13 billion in Bitcoin. A recent $2 billion transfer by the US government stirred market worries. Since June, concerns over potential sales by both the German and US governments have bolstered bearish trends.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler notes that summer has seen notable selling pressure. The Net Taker Volume, indicating market buying or selling predominance, has been negative, showing dominant selling pressure. Until this metric turns positive, suggesting increased buying volume, the market is likely to remain under bearish influence.
Actionable Insights for Investors
- Monitor Net Taker Volume to gauge market sentiment shifts.
- Track government Bitcoin movements, especially from the US and Germany.
- Be cautious around key economic reports like the US employment figures.
- Use exchange-specific metrics, such as CVD on Kraken, to understand market pressure.
Current Market Situation
As of the latest update, Bitcoin’s price has dropped to $63,000 and could face further declines with the upcoming US employment report on August 2. The report’s outcome will be crucial in determining whether the market can mitigate accelerating sales, despite the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) dovish stance.