The decentralized blockchain platform Polymarket achieved a significant milestone by reaching a monthly trading volume of $100 million in June, driven largely by user predictions on the upcoming United States presidential elections. The total value of transactions related to these predictions stands at $203.3 million. Former President Donald Trump is currently leading the predictions with a 62% probability of winning the election.
Shifting Odds for Biden
Current President Joe Biden finds himself in second place, with predictions valuing his chances of re-election at $23.9 million. However, Biden’s odds have declined from 34% to 21% following the Presidential Debate on June 28. Speculation about Biden potentially withdrawing from the race has increased the chances for other Democratic candidates such as Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama.
Which Other Candidates Are in Focus?
Other prediction markets have also seen significant activity, with millions of dollars in transactions. Predictions about Biden withdrawing from the race are at 43%, with an additional 9% predicting his exit on July 4, accumulating over $10 million in trades. Despite the hype, predictions for American rapper Kanye West and crypto-critic Elizabeth Warren to win the presidency remain below 1%.
Key Insights
- Polymarket’s trading volume surged by 620% from January to June, peaking at $109.9 million.
- The platform witnessed a 115% increase in monthly active traders, reaching 29,266 in June.
- The total value locked in Polymarket rose by around 69% in the past month, now standing at $40.2 million.
- Significant trading volumes were also noted in cryptocurrency prices and the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship markets.
Polymarket, launched in June 2020, recently raised $70 million, with investments led by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund. Yuga Cohler, Coinbase’s engineering leader, commented on the platform, stating, “Prediction markets are technology that moves societies forward and protects freedom.”