The anticipation within the cryptocurrency market for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has hit a turning point, with expectations for an Ethereum-based ETF facing a downward trend. Market predictions now suggest a mere 28% probability for the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of May, a stark contrast to the previously forecasted 74% likelihood for Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year.
Ethereum ETF Approval Wanes
Despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs, the outlook for Ethereum ETFs has grown bleak. Asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have submitted their proposals, awaiting the SEC’s verdict.
The SEC’s recent decision to defer judgment on Ethereum ETF proposals from these financial institutions suggests a waning confidence in the approval of such products. Ryze Labs analysts interpret the SEC’s hesitation as a sign of reluctance from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to expand approvals beyond Bitcoin ETFs, which could limit the agency’s regulatory scope over future cryptocurrency-related funds.
Shifting Odds for Crypto ETFs
The SEC’s stance has been further complicated by recent political pressure, with Democratic senators urging Chairman Gensler to halt the approval of new crypto products following the sanctioning of Bitcoin ETFs. Bloomberg’s Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas has accordingly reduced his own prediction for an Ethereum ETF approval from 70% to 30%, highlighting the changing sentiment among experts and industry observers.
As the debate continues, the contrasting scenarios between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs become more evident, painting a less hopeful picture for Ethereum’s spot ETF potential and reflecting the regulatory and political challenges the cryptocurrency space continues to encounter.