Renowned for pioneering the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, PlanB questions the traditional four-year cycle premise usually associated with Bitcoin’s market performance. He contends that expecting a bear market in 2026 based on this cycle could be misleading, indicating that past cycles lack statistical significance. Although consistent halving cycles have been observed, they do not ensure a price peak exactly a year and a half after each halving event.
Is Bitcoin’s Classic Cycle Model Obsolete?
PlanB has recently posited that Bitcoin’s price changes might surpass the limitations of traditional cyclical patterns. He speculates on potential price peaks stretching from 2026 to 2028 and shifts his focus from trying to predict peak points to examining average prices instead. He reassures that no fundamental alterations have been detected in the ongoing cycle, hinting at a substantial price leap still anticipated. The current stable price landscape, influenced by institutional stakeholders, might herald a promising future for Bitcoin.
Willy Woo, a blockchain expert, concurs that the end of the bull market has not yet been confirmed. Woo distinguishes between this and previous cycles, noting the shift from short-term derivative liquidity driving peaks to enduring spot liquidity, signifying a potential fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s market structure.
Can Bitcoin Withstand Persisting Market Pressure?
Rekt Capital, another market observer, remarked on investor distress as Bitcoin’s value slipped below $104,000 last week, prompting many to consider exiting the market at reasonable prices. However, sentiments of anxiety were fleeting as Bitcoin dipped over 3% to approximately $107,700 during Tuesday’s Asian trading, struggling to stabilize above the critical $108,000 support level.
Experts highlight the need for robust foundational developments to restore stability and sureness in both Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency world. Key elements deemed necessary include:
- Renewed participation from institutional investors.
- Enhanced investment flows, especially towards ETFs.
- Alleviation of macroeconomic uncertainties that currently cast a shadow on market confidence.
The cry for a clear direction in Bitcoin’s path reflects underlying uncertainties in its market dynamics. Nonetheless, the anticipation of upcoming developments keeps stakeholders hopeful for a harmonious blend of innovation and stability in the crypto sphere.
