A recent analysis by Galaxy Digital reveals that Bitcoin‘s current market cycle might establish a bottom at significantly higher price points than previous downturns experienced. This research indicates a supportive zone ranging from $62,000 to a realized price of $53,600. Experts note a marked change in speculative conduct, distinguishing this cycle from earlier and more volatile lows.
What is the current landscape of Bitcoin downturns?
Alex Thorn, leading the research department at Galaxy, elaborates that Bitcoin’s historical peaks and lows consistently adhere to a four-year cycle pattern. Notably, the depth of value declines from peak to trough has shown a contracting trajectory. Initially, these were at 85% and 84%, then 77% in 2022, and now a projected 51% in the 2026 cycle, indicating a market that is settling into a more stable structure.
Thorn further explains that the peak conditions witnessed in October 2025 diverged from historical cycles, with only two out of eleven standard top indicators being triggered. Importantly, the highly monitored Pi Cycle Top failed to activate for the first time. Similarly, the MVRV ratio achieved merely 2.29 compared to previous cycle highs ranging from 2.93 to 5.91.
What about indicators for a market bottom?
The study points out that among the 13 technical indicators usually linked to market bottoms, only 4 have appeared. The absence of traditionally reliable signals makes it premature to assert that a confirmed bottom has been reached.
Thorn suggests, “The current cycle has failed to generate classic top signals, suggesting the peak and trough formations may diverge meaningfully from precedent.”
An analysis of timing reveals a deviation from past patterns: previous market bottoms have typically occurred 12 to 13 months post-peak. With the current downturn just about 8 months old, many experts believe the market bottoming process is incomplete.
Galaxy’s report proposes a potential bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 if the realized price remains $53,600. Alternatively, if conditions worsen, prices could drop to between $30,000 and $37,000. A milder correction might stabilize BTC between $51,000 and $54,000.
Furthermore, CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis supports the close valuation zone near $59,000, which is merely about 9% above the realized price. Historically, Bitcoin has dipped to or near the realized price during major bear market lows.
Concrete data illustrates subdued demand: CryptoQuant notes a dramatic 652,000 BTC drop in spot and speculative futures demand—marking the most significant weekly decline since January 2022. Their long-term demand metric also indicates a negative trend, suggesting fewer buyers compared to a year ago.
