Bitcoin, the preeminent cryptocurrency, has made a remarkable recovery, surging to $38,500 after the U.S. approved its first spot Bitcoin ETF. Overcoming a significant downturn, Bitcoin regained its stance above the $40,000 mark. Crypto derivatives expert Gordon Grant attributes this rebound to a reduction in open interest at pivotal price points in Bitcoin options.
Grant observes a notable decline in open interest for short-term Bitcoin derivatives, particularly after January 26th’s options expiration. This drop contrasts with the buildup to the expiration date, which might have previously restricted Bitcoin’s price due to high local gamma, a measure of price movement sensitivity.
Before the January 26th expiration, the total open interest in Bitcoin options at major exchanges exceeded $13 billion. However, post-expiration, it plummeted by over $3 billion. Deribit, a leading crypto options platform, signals a bullish outlook with call options at the $50,000 strike price dominating the open interest for upcoming expirations.
In options trading, call options grant the right to buy the underlying asset at a specified price before or on the expiration date. A high concentration of calls at the $50,000 level indicates that investors are optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to surpass this value.
Defying Predictions: Bitcoin Maintains Its Rally
Despite numerous analysts forecasting a decline, Bitcoin has sustained a price above $43,000 in recent days. This stability defies predictions of a drop to around $33,600. Even Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, anticipated a 30% correction post-ETF approval, which would have meant a fall to the $33,600 range, but Bitcoin has proven resilient, staying well above this level.