In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant delves into the factors that anticipated Bitcoin‘s substantial drop from its towering peak of $126,000 in October 2025 to its current levels around $70,000. By closely examining their “Apparent Demand Growth” metric, the firm outlines a pattern of demand shifts across six distinct stages that unraveled weeks before the price decline became evident in the market.
What Leads to a Reversal?
The first stage saw Bitcoin escalate to $118,000, where demand indicators continued to rise, hinting at sustained momentum. Here, the price and demand metrics were in sync, misleading many into believing that the bullish trend would continue.
By the second phase, Bitcoin achieved its all-time high at $126,000, matched by the peak in demand metrics. This alignment fortified the belief among traders and stakeholders that Bitcoin was invincible.
How Do These Stages Manifest?
The third stage introduced the first significant signs of divergence. The demand metric dipped below its earlier higher low, deflating to $123,000. Although Bitcoin’s price remained elevated, the on-chain data suggested an early weakening of the bullish rally.
By the fourth phase with Bitcoin dropping to $114,000, a clear shift to a bearish framework in demand was observed—evidenced by lower highs and lows in the metrics—a strong indicator that the uptrend had reversed despite the price holding above $110,000.
This downward pattern was consistent in the fifth stage, where prices slid to $101,000. Each successive lower high in demand hinted at a gradual but inevitable price deterioration.
The analysis reached its final, crucial stage on November 16, as Bitcoin fell to $94,000, breaching its 50-day simple moving average. Both price actions and demand metrics faltered, signaling a clear moment for strategic realignment according to CryptoQuant’s findings.
“Each stage of decline offered investors a unique vantage point to re-assess risk exposure,” commented a CryptoQuant spokesperson.
Notable conclusions include:
- Each stage presented a progressively earlier warning of the downturn.
- The decline was systematic, occurring over time, offering multiple opportunities for recalibration.
- CryptoQuant’s approach underscores the value of non-price indicators in market navigation.
Presently, the apparent demand growth metric continues to descend, nearing the lower reaches of its spectrum. This current position is under close inspection as market participants weigh whether it signals another accumulation phase akin to periods before the 2025 rally or signals an inherently weaker structural perspective. CryptoQuant’s thorough analysis sheds light on the intricate dynamics of Bitcoin’s journey, emphasizing the importance of employing on-chain data to foresee and navigate market shifts.
