October’s inflation figures in the United States have surpassed expectations, resulting in the futures of the three major stock indices falling into negative territory. As the market continues to price a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, the expectation for a 50 basis point increase gains strength. The cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute has noted Bitcoin‘s renewed sensitivity to movements in the U.S. exchanges, highlighting $73,000 as a critical threshold.
October Inflation Rises 0.4%, Surpassing Forecasts
Data released on November 10 indicate a 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. Although weaker than the 0.6% headline gain in September, the result exceeded the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, beating the anticipated 0.2%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to calculate annual inflation due to insufficient data for comparison, citing the government shutdown as the cause.
According to BIT Stock Platform, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.5% to their lowest pre-market level. Wintermute’s report notes that last week’s non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, boosting the likelihood of a rate increase in December to approximately 77%. With today’s inflation data, the chance of a larger rate increase has increased. The CME FedWatch tool prices a 50-basis-point rate hike at around 10% for December.
Bitcoin Faces Crucial $73,000 Threshold
Wintermute’s report from November 10 highlights that after surging to $81,000 last week, Bitcoin has relinquished all gains, slipping to $73,500 over the weekend near its 200-day moving average around $73,000. The weekly close below the 50-week moving average at approximately $75,500 ended a seven-week streak above that level. Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,860.
Wintermute maintains a cautious outlook as long as Bitcoin remains below its 50-week average. The firm suggests that a close below $73,000 and the 200-day average could target $68,000 as the next downside move. For a more positive outlook, Bitcoin would need to reclaim $80,000 and sustain it, coupled with weekly net inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The past week saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the largest weekly outflow since June. Wintermute views any potential rallies as adjustments of existing positions rather than a renewed influx into funds. Over $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated recently in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. The report suggests that a decrease in leveraged long positions could limit forced selling pressure if prices fall again.
Wintermute warns that a potential correction in AI-related stocks, coinciding with an interest rate hike, could dampen liquidity and risk appetite. In the latest downturn, Near (NEAR), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Ethena (ENA) fell more sharply than Bitcoin. The company indicates that during a further market decline, altcoins that rose higher in the previous recovery might face heavier selling pressure.
Flow of Bitcoin Held at a Loss Slows
According to an analysis by CryptoQuant’s MAC_D on November 10, the seven-day average for the SOPR metric, which measures short-term Bitcoin investors’ profit or loss upon sale, was about 0.99. This indicates that their sales typically resulted in losses on average.
Short-term investors sent approximately 32,695 BTC held at a loss to exchanges on November 6, which accounted for about 89% of their total BTC transfers to exchanges at that time. As Bitcoin dipped to a new low on November 9, the transfer of loss-held BTC to exchanges dropped to about 9,900 BTC. MAC_D notes that historically, periods of increased loss selling in bull markets have been followed by reduced selling pressure and accumulation opportunities. The analyst suggests that if these transfers continue to decline as prices fall, a rebound may become more likely.
U.S. Engages in Talks with Iran and Ukraine
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed Washington’s readiness to negotiate with Iran whenever a discussable agreement emerges. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that control over the Strait of Hormuz remains intact, dismissing impeachment attempts against him in the House as a “political show” and “absurd.”
Walter Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is considering revisiting the security arrangement between Europe and Russia as part of negotiations aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine. Russia’s demands regarding NATO expansion and the deployment of Western military forces are also under discussion. While the proposal has been favorably received by Moscow, European countries insist on adherence to existing agreements, expressing concerns about Russia potentially expanding its influence in Eastern Europe. As U.S., Russian, Ukrainian, and European representatives continue negotiations in Abu Dhabi, significant near-term progress appears unlikely.
Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains near the $73,000 threshold, and the reduced transfer of loss-held BTC to exchanges suggests that selling pressure may be easing. Following significant ETF outflows, any rebound beyond $80,000 accompanied by weekly net fund inflows would be a more tangible signal of strengthening demand. If U.S. stock market selloffs deepen and the probability of a 50-basis-point rate increase rises, altcoins that have depreciated more than Bitcoin in recent downturns could face intensified pressure.
