As global markets brace for an eventful week from November 2-6, the spotlight will shine brightly on the U.S. midterm elections and a packed schedule of economic data releases. Alongside the congressional races set to reshape Washington, the release of crucial employment and wage statistics on Friday emerges as the week’s pivotal events. Investors will also scrutinize Federal Reserve officials’ comments, the U.S. Treasury’s borrowing plans, and prominent events from the cryptocurrency sector.
Focus on U.S. Employment and Price Pressures
The week’s data barrage kicks off on Monday, November 2, with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 18:00. This indicator is expected to edge up to 54.6 from 54.5. Market participants will evaluate this alongside the report’s pricing and employment metrics. Later, at 22:00, the Federal Reserve’s survey on loan officer conditions (SLOOS) will shed light on banks’ lending standards and demand variations.
On Tuesday, as the midterms unfold, at 18:00, the U.S. Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report will be released. The number of job openings is anticipated to rise from 7.079 million to 7.130 million.
Wednesday, November 4, sees an acceleration in data announcements. At 16:15, the ADP Employment Report is projected to show a slowdown in private sector job growth from 90,000 to 65,000. Concurrently, the U.S. Treasury will unveil its quarterly borrowing strategy at 16:30, followed by the ISM Services PMI at 18:00. Expectations are for a slight dip to 54.8 from the previous 54.9, with employment and pricing components drawing close attention.
On Thursday, initial jobless claims data will surface at 16:30. Forecasts suggest a marginal rise in first-time claims from 194,000 to 195,000. At the same hour, productivity gains are expected to escalate from 1.4% to 2.5%, while unit labor costs might decline from 1.2% to 0.6% in the third quarter metrics.
Turning to the Fed’s schedule, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is slated for a panel at 16:50 on Thursday, followed by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin at 17:10. New York Fed President John Williams will engage in a dialogue in Frankfurt on Friday at 12:30.
High-Stakes Economic Data Culminates the Week
The crescendo of economic releases peaks on Friday, November 6, at 16:30. The non-farm payrolls are anticipated to surge from 29,000 to 65,000, while the unemployment rate is pegged to remain steady at 4.2%. Simultaneously, average hourly earnings are projected to see a monthly gain of 0.3%, up from the previous 0.1% increase.
Later in the day, at 17:10, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak, followed by the release of preliminary November consumer sentiment and inflation expectations by the University of Michigan at 18:00. Expectations are for consumer confidence to inch up to 48.2 from 48.0 with close monitoring of one- and five-year inflation expectations.
In tandem with economic and political developments, the week will also spotlight financial technology and the Ethereum ecosystem. The Hong Kong FinTech Week runs from November 2-6, featuring its main conference from November 2-3. Meanwhile, Ethereum developers and researchers will convene at Devcon 8 in Mumbai from November 3-6, providing a technical counterpoint to traditional financial market narratives.
Expectations surrounding U.S. labor market data suggest a mixed picture: while ADP employment growth is forecast to decelerate, both non-farm payrolls and job openings are anticipated to rise, necessitating a holistic analysis of employment figures alongside wages and labor costs to ascertain the economic outlook.
