According to a new report published by the investment management firm VanEck on December 8, despite the long-awaited recession expected to occur next year in the US, potential spot ETF approvals and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event are predicted to drive Bitcoin to reach all-time highs in the fourth quarter.
VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush predict that due to slowing economic momentum and falling inflation, the US economy will enter a recession in the first half of 2024. Moreover, they foresee that, if approved, over $2.4 billion will flow into spot Bitcoin ETF funds in the first quarter, which will help keep Bitcoin prices high.
VanEck believes that spot Bitcoin ETF products will trade at approximately a 0.1% discount and zero commission across various brokerage firms, meeting the demand. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet approved a spot Bitcoin ETF application in the US, although it approved funds based on futures trading in 2021.
The deadline for the US Securities and Exchange Commission to approve, deny, or delay applications from companies including VanEck, BlackRock, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie is expected to be in mid-January. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart expects the potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval process to occur between January 5 and 10.
Bitcoin’s fourth halving event is expected to take place in April, and this event, combined with previous halving events that led to significant surges in Bitcoin’s value, could push Bitcoin to surpass $48,000. Analysts predict that miners, due to a much better balance sheet, will emerge unscathed from the reward halving process.
With these developments, analysts forecast that Bitcoin will climb a treacherous path in the US election year and may reach an all-time high and even a significant cycle peak of up to $160,000 by November. The report mentions that if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in December, Satoshi Nakamoto could be selected as ‘Person of the Year’ by Time Magazine as a long-term forecast.