Despite the potential for issuers to offer a spot XRP ETF, analysts warn that regulatory approval is unlikely anytime soon, particularly due to the ongoing SEC lawsuit against Ripple and the absence of an approved XRP futures ETF product, which significantly diminishes the chances of a spot XRP ETF being sanctioned.
CoinShares’ Product Director Townsend Lansing suggests that an XRP ETF is improbable unless the SEC is compelled to acknowledge XRP as a non-security. The legal battle between the SEC and Ripple is ongoing, with a court session scheduled for April 23, following a judge’s ruling that XRP is not a security, except when sold to institutional buyers.
Scott Johnsson of Van Buren Capital sees the likelihood of an XRP ETF as very slim, possibly requiring new leadership at the SEC. Other analysts, like CoinShares’ research analyst Max Shannon, point out that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took over a decade, indicating the lengthy process involved.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expressed skepticism about an imminent XRP ETF, noting the ongoing SEC case against Ripple and the lack of an approved XRP futures ETF in the U.S. Meanwhile, Johnsson argues that even if a financial exchange like CME were to list XRP futures, the SEC would require years of high correlation between XRP futures and spot markets before approving a spot ETF, to ensure sufficient oversight against fraud and manipulation.
Despite these developments, some optimistic XRP investors remain hopeful. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink have both recently dodged questions about XRP’s future, while Franklin Templeton’s crypto asset head hints at offering more crypto investment opportunities to clients, raising hopes for other crypto ETF applications. The industry remains focused on the potential approval of spot Ethereum ETF products, with Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimating a 70% chance of approval by May.