XRP is poised to close in the green for the third straight month, marking one of the recent notable recoveries in its price outlook. Historical data suggests that such a consecutive monthly rise is rare during periods of uncertainty, sometimes paving the way for a more extensive bullish trend.
Market Direction Turns Upwards in Recent Months
Following a steep decline of 22.1% in June, XRP has been gradually recovering. It witnessed an increase of 2.11% in July, followed by a 30% gain in August, and is currently trading around $1.5060 with an 8.67% rise in September. This rebound pattern signals a resurgence of buyer interest after the sharp declines seen during the summer.
XRP, as it advances towards a third consecutive monthly increase, signals broader market recovery dynamics.
This recovery in price has not been limited to short-term movements. The reclaiming of previously lost ground in long-term technical indicators strengthens the notion that the downtrend is weakening.
SEC Filing Sparks Renewed Institutional Interest
On September 28, 2026, an updated 424B3 prospectus for a spot XRP ETF was submitted to the SEC. The document revealed that Coinbase Custody has been selected for custodian services, with an investor fee set at 0.34%. While the SEC has yet to make a final decision, the commercial details in the application indicate that the operational framework for the product is largely in place.
The SEC, as the regulatory authority overseeing U.S. capital markets, including exchange-traded funds, plays a pivotal role in granting final approvals for numerous financial products. Coinbase Custody stands out as a provider of institutional custody services for digital assets.
The updated prospectus, while not a final approval, shows the infrastructure necessary for the fund’s share issuance is prepared.
Technical Outlook Highlights Critical Thresholds
Technically, the $1.2646 level emerged as a robust support during the summer. The preservation of this area, coupled with notable buying activity and positive divergence in the relative strength index, is among the signals supporting a potential trend reversal.
XRP is currently testing the $1.5411 mark. Should this level be decisively breached, the psychological threshold of $2.3000, which aligns with the 2025 peak, could come into focus.
Seasonal Risks Eyed Entering October
Looking ahead, historical seasonality data emerges as a primary risk to monitor. October has traditionally been one of the weaker months for XRP, with an average return loss of 5.14%. This prompts a close watch on whether the institutional interest surrounding the ETF can counteract this historical pattern of weakness.
As the market seeks direction, both regulatory developments and the market’s reaction at critical price levels will be decisive. Particularly, a positive monthly close would serve as a crucial indicator of whether the recent recovery is transitioning into a more sustained structure.
