The likelihood of a potential US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for an Ethereum-based Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) appears dim, with experts expressing strong reservations. Bloomberg’s Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas quantifies this pessimism, estimating a mere 25% chance for an Ethereum ETF to pass SEC scrutiny. The anticipation of such a fund has been met with silence from the regulatory body, suggesting a deliberate lack of response that does not bode well for hopeful investors.
Analysts Weigh In on Ethereum ETF Approval Odds
Balchunas, voicing his outlook on social media, indicates an intentional non-participation from the SEC, observing no encouraging signs in the current climate. In contrast, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, Craig Salm, provides a neutral perspective, noting that the SEC’s silence is not necessarily indicative of disapproval. Salm highlights that previous positive interactions with the SEC regarding the Bitcoin ETF might have already set the precedent for the Ethereum ETF’s creation and redemption mechanics.
Salm suggests that the groundwork laid by the Bitcoin ETF approval process might lessen the need for further engagement with the SEC for an Ethereum ETF. He underscores the similarities between the two, with the primary distinction being the underlying cryptocurrency asset. This implies that prior SEC involvement might streamline the Ethereum ETF discussion.
SEC’s Stance and Recent Actions
Despite the previous involvement with Bitcoin ETF applications, the SEC’s current actions seem to target Ethereum specifically. Reports have surfaced about the agency issuing subpoenas to companies regarding their connections with the Ethereum Foundation. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital interprets these actions as an indicator of the SEC’s reluctance to approve Ethereum ETFs, echoing the sentiments of others who view these regulatory moves as a means to delay the approval process.
The overall sentiment from industry experts and analysts leans towards a bleak outlook for the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. The SEC’s recent scrutiny of Ethereum and its foundation is seen as a hurdle that casts doubt on the possibility of a favorable decision in the near future.