Bitcoin remains under significant selling pressure for the sixth consecutive week, with its value impacted by the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate hikes, outflows from spot ETFs, and MSCI’s decision to remove Strategy from its primary indices. As per CryptoAppsy, Bitcoin was trading at $73,400 at the time of writing.
Market Prices in Potential 50 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike
The prevailing expectation among interest rate futures for the December meeting is a 25 basis point increase. However, markets are also contemplating a potential 50 basis point move. Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller noted that if the core consumer prices for October rise by 0.3% or more, a 50 basis point hike should be considered.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that the current economic outlook necessitates at least two more 25 basis point increases.
Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman emphasized that inflationary pressures are more persistent than expected. On November 12, TradingView reported the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to about 4.77%, while the 10-year yield reached 4.99%. A dollar index remaining over 102 and near yearly highs may limit a potential Bitcoin recovery.
ETF Outflows Compound MSCI Decision
During the week of November 2–6, there was a net outflow of $1.28 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The market mood, already weakened by a cyberattack on Binance, now faces tempered optimism regarding Bitcoin’s brief surges.
MSCI announced its decision to exclude Strategy, a company with substantial Bitcoin holdings, from its major indices. This change, taking effect after the market closes on November 30, could lead passive funds tracking these indices to divest their Strategy shares.
According to BIT Stock Platform data, pre-market trading in the U.S. showed Strategy shares down 4.32%, Bitmine 3.17%, Circle 2.77%, and Coinbase 2.69%. The sell-off also affected sectors such as cloud infrastructure and semiconductors, with CoreWeave dropping 6.8%, Coherent 4.9%, and SanDisk 3.77%.
Coinbase Discount Goes Unresolved for 50 Days
CoinGlass data, as reported by Odaily on November 12, indicates that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 50 consecutive days. This index, which compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance, stood at minus 0.13%, with a 30-day average of minus 0.15%. Negative values suggest weakened buying demand or increased selling pressure in the U.S., with the previous 97-day record negative streak ending on August 24.
According to Glassnode, the supply of major stablecoins has decreased by about $14.2 billion over the last 30 days, marking the fastest contraction since June 2022. The organization noted that buying was confined to a few large wallets, suggesting that confirming a recovery could take time due to weak new capital inflows.
Santiment data shows a sentiment ratio in social media posts tracking Bitcoin at 0.82, Ether at 0.88, and XRP at 0.49, with XRP entering an area of excessive pessimism. A return of Bitcoin above $79,000 could indicate a reversal against this prevailing sentiment.
Nansen reports that market order sales in Hyperliquid‘s perpetual Bitcoin futures surpassed buys both over the last seven days and the last 24 hours. The net short positions of a tracked investor group decreased towards the end of October, according to Nansen’s trading performance data. Swissblock noted that the market has so far absorbed sales relatively well but warned that a rising risk index could increase selling pressure.
$80,000 Seen as Key for Trend Reversal
According to Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, prices below $73,500 heighten the risk of a continued downturn. He states that a confirmed reversal to an upward trend requires surpassing $80,000. Forex.com analyst Julien Pineda suggests maintaining $73,200 first and then crossing $76,500 is essential for sustaining the upward correction. Pineda considers $70,000 a critical psychological support, indicating that a drop to this level might weaken medium to long-term uptrend potentials.
Bitfinex notes that Bitcoin has traded below the average cost of short-term investors for four days. Historically, in most similar periods, the price reclaimed this level within two weeks. In extended recovery cases, deeper lows unfolded. Bitfinex expects Bitcoin to trade near the lower end of the $72,350–$79,400 range and suggests that sales met between $75,900–$77,500 may enable a retry of the $77,000–$80,000 band.
Bitcoin’s current price of $73,400 hovers just $200 above Pineda’s watched support level of $73,200. The immediate test for any rebound is at $76,500. A slowdown in ETF outflows and a recovery in the Coinbase premium index might signify fresh buying interest supporting a push toward this level.
