Bitcoin has descended below $84,000 as tensions in the Middle East propel oil prices and U.S. bond yields upward. Despite a momentary plunge leading to liquidations worth hundreds of millions in leveraged trades overnight, the increased Bitcoin outflows from exchanges and renewed interest in spot ETFs indicate significant accumulation activity. At present, Bitcoin is trading at $84,175.
Oil Prices and Bond Yields Exert Downward Pressure
Iran’s escalated attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have dampened the appetite for risk assets. Brent crude has climbed by approximately 1% to reach $101.50 per barrel, while the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes has risen by 3 basis points to 5.31%. Concurrently, the dollar has appreciated against all G10 currencies.
Losses are more evident in other cryptocurrencies. Dogecoin has declined nearly 5% to $0.09, Hyperliquid has dropped 4% to around $91, Ethereum is down 3.5% to $2,610, and XRP has decreased 3% to $1.46. BNB, Solana, Zcash, and Tron have seen declines ranging from 1% to 2.5%.
The sell-off has also impacted leveraged trades. Bitcoin’s drop of approximately $2,000 in just 20 minutes led to the liquidation of nearly $400 million in long positions in less than an hour. During this period, Ethereum saw the largest liquidation at approximately $158.62 million, followed by Bitcoin at $118.73 million. Other cryptocurrencies, including XRP, Dogecoin, BNB, and Sui, also experienced significant liquidations. The successive closure of leveraged positions opened in anticipation of price rises can magnify market movements.
Similar pressures have been observed across global equity markets. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at record highs in New York, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated by 0.6%. Technology stocks in South Korea and Hong Kong fell, and U.S. stock index futures relinquished previous gains.
Attention also turns to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where a quarter-point rate increase was decided. According to Dan Coatsworth, chief analyst at LVRG Research, the recent weakness in employment data has diminished the likelihood of another rate hike this month. Markets are seeking hints on further tightening through the year in these minutes.
Technically, the $84,000 mark is key. FXPro suggests that falling below this level could signify bearish dominance. A breach of $83,000 could intensify selling pressure and lead to a swift decline toward $80,000.
Exchanges See Outflows and Institutional Accumulation Gains Momentum
Santiment’s data released this morning highlights that Monday saw a net outflow of 24,073 BTC from centralized exchanges—the largest recorded daily net outflow since March 1. The proportion of Bitcoins held on these exchanges relative to total supply has diminished to approximately 6.50%.
Santiment indicates that large Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges typically signal a bullish outlook because it reduces the volume available for immediate sale. If demand remains robust, the reduced availability of Bitcoin for buyers on exchanges could support the price.
Movements by major wallet holders also bolster this outlook. According to Santiment’s October 6 analysis, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated a total of 86,702 BTC over the past three weeks, achieving their highest holdings since April 23. Conversely, smaller wallets, holding less than 0.01 BTC, have engaged in profit-taking.
Santiment notes that historically, there has been a robust correlation between large wallet holdings and Bitcoin price movements. Periods where larger investors offset the sales by smaller holders have often been followed by price increases. Although this accumulation suggests a possible move above $90,000, the rise is not guaranteed.
ETF Inflows Resume; Robinhood Adds Bitcoin
On the institutional front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced renewed net inflows after a brief pause. Data from Farside Investors and Trader T indicates that the last trading day saw total net inflows amounting to $118.8 million. Of this, BlackRock’s IBIT fund attracted $122 million, and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT fund received $7.8 million. Meanwhile, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust recorded an outflow of $11 million, with no net flows observed in other products. This brings net inflows to $321.4 million month-to-date and $1.25 billion year-to-date.
Robinhood’s Executive responsible for international operations and cryptocurrency, Johann Kerbrat, has disclosed that the company has added Bitcoin worth $25 million to its balance sheet.
In the short term, the Bitcoin landscape is being shaped by the tug-of-war between geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates, which exert pressure, and the supportive effects of exchange outflows and significant institutional purchases. The pricing stability around $84,000 is closely monitored to gauge whether the current selling pressure will persist.
