According to Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, a significant Bitcoin selloff from miners may be on the horizon following the upcoming halving event. Thielen’s analysis, dated April 13, anticipates that miners could offload approximately $5 billion in Bitcoin post-halving, a pattern seen in past cycles.
Market Analyst Foresees Post-Halving Stagnation
Thielen forecasts a potential market challenge during a six-month period of low activity in the summer. He predicts this could trigger a four to six-month selloff by miners, similar to past events, which could lead to a sideways trend in Bitcoin prices. Historical data from the 2020 halving supports his projection, with Bitcoin prices having plateaued between $9,000 and $11,500 for five months after the event.
After the 2024 price surge to an all-time high of $73,734 in March, a subsequent price drop to below $63,000 in mid-April was observed. Thielen points out that miners’ tendency to hoard Bitcoin leads to a supply shortage which can drive up prices. However, he also indicates that altcoins might suffer more during this period, as they have already heavily retreated from their 2021 highs and a potential rally might only start six months after the halving.
Implications for Bitcoin Miners and Market Supply
The report suggests that Marathon, the largest Bitcoin miner, might accumulate an inventory to sell gradually post-halving, to avoid a steep drop in revenue. With Marathon producing 28-30 Bitcoins daily, this strategy could add up to 133 days of extra supply to the market. Following the halving, daily production would halve again, influencing the market volume.
Considered Points
- Miners are expected to sell $5 billion in Bitcoin post-halving.
- A potential selloff could result in a horizontal price movement for 4-6 months.
- Miner accumulation strategies may lead to a temporary supply shortage, boosting prices.
- Altcoins could be disproportionately affected, with rallies potentially delayed.
The overall conclusion points to a possible daily sale of $104 million in Bitcoin by miners, countering the supply/demand imbalance that had previously contributed to price increases. Marathon CEO Peter Thiel has remarked on the company’s profitability post-halving, with a break-even point at around $46,000 per Bitcoin, and he does not foresee significant price changes in the six months after the event.