Bitcoin, the leading digital currency, has seen a significant 20% decline over recent months, reigniting concerns of a prolonged downturn, commonly referred to as a “crypto winter.” However, new insights from a study by Glassnode and Fasanara Digital present an optimistic reality. The data reveals that Bitcoin has attracted a net capital influx exceeding $732 billion since its lowest point in 2022, surpassing the combined total of all previous cycles.
Has Bitcoin Achieved Stability?
The report from Glassnode highlights a notable increase in Bitcoin’s realized market value, now standing at $1.1 trillion. This valuation metric, which measures actual capital investment, usually declines during sustained downturns, yet it currently shows an upward trajectory. Bitcoin’s price has soared from $16,000 to an impressive $126,000, all while experiencing a decrease in volatility from 84% to 43%. This decrease in volatility is seen as transitioning to a more stable market, marked by greater liquidity and increased involvement from institutional investors.
Are Mining Insights Suggesting a Change?
The mining sector, often a precursor to market conditions, does not exhibit typical signs of distress. CoinShares’ Bitcoin Mining ETF, WGMI, posted a remarkable 35% increase during the same period of Bitcoin’s price drop. This contrasts with past trends where miners would typically surrender first in hard times. Glassnode points out that a particular drop in American Bitcoin Corp.’s shares is not a reflection of industry weakness but rather an isolated company event.
Glassnode and Fasanara Digital interpret the current downturn as a routine correction within Bitcoin’s cycle rather than the onset of a crypto winter. Historical patterns from 2017, 2020, and 2023 reveal that similar declines were followed by strong recoveries. The leverage unwinding event of October 2025 further aligns with this, as prompt closures of open positions led to enhanced liquidity absorption.
Concrete insights from the data suggest the following:
- Bitcoin’s realized market value stands at a record $1.1 trillion.
- Volatility has decreased significantly from 84% to 43%.
- ETFs presently hold significant stakes, with 1.36 million BTC, equating to 6.9% of the Bitcoin supply.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have increased market influence.
- Long-term investors are maintaining their positions.
Glassnode’s report posits a hopeful outlook, asserting that Bitcoin’s current standing is closer to its annual high rather than previous lows. In addition, the absence of rising realized losses and the persistence of long-term holders indicate the market is on a stable footing.
“The downturn is perceived as a mid-cycle correction rather than an entry into a new winter phase,” explained Glassnode experts.
