The U.S. launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF led to a brief surge in Bitcoin’s price above $49,000. However, the focus shifted to the cryptocurrency’s short-term price trend as it risked losing a crucial support level at $40,000, potentially leading to a retraction to $30,000.
Crypto analyst FieryTrading, in an analysis on January 20, identified a correlation between bear market bottoms, block reward halvings, and Bitcoin’s price. He suggested that historical patterns from the second and third halvings could indicate a speculative model for significant price increases.
Building on this model, FieryTrading noted a 300% price increase after the second halving and a 200% increase following the third. He proposed that a movement towards $31,000 for Bitcoin during the fourth halving is plausible, based on historical trajectories.
Despite the spot Bitcoin ETF not meeting short-term price expectations, attention has turned to other catalysts, particularly the block reward halving expected in April. This event is anticipated to fulfill the bullish expectations initially associated with the ETF launch.
Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge Capital also supports the notion that the halving will bolster Bitcoin’s ascent, predicting a rise to $170,000 by 2025. Despite a lukewarm response to the spot ETF approval, the overall performance of ETFs has been notable, achieving significant trading volume within days.