Crypto analytics firm Kaiko reports that despite rising trading volumes, there is no aggressive speculation for an Ethereum ETF, contrasting with Bitcoin‘s ETF excitement. The U.S. SEC has delayed a decision on Fidelity’s Ethereum ETF application until March, but market data doesn’t show investors positioning for a rally in Ethereum’s derivative markets. The correlation between ETH and BTC has reached multi-year lows, indicating each token is developing its own narrative.
While ETFs have been a significant catalyst for Bitcoin, it’s uncertain if Ethereum will follow suit. However, Ethereum has various narratives to rely on, such as new Layer-2 solutions or the success of EigenLayer, which could potentially trigger excitement if ETFs don’t.
Kaiko’s analysis of derivative data suggests recent Ethereum movements are driven by spot markets rather than perpetual futures, indicating a lack of leveraged bets on an upcoming Ethereum ETF. September and October showed a decline in futures market activity, with total open interest in USD falling by over 20% from summer levels.
While Bitcoin’s ETF approval led to neutral funding rates and a rise in open positions, suggesting anticipation, Ethereum has not seen a significant increase in open positions typical of a bull market. This further supports the lack of speculative excitement for an Ethereum ETF.
In summary, despite Ethereum’s increased trading activity, there’s no significant speculation for an ETF, and the token’s market behavior remains distinct from Bitcoin’s, with investors showing caution in the derivatives market.