The recent upheaval in the cryptocurrency landscape has caught the attention of market participants, as predictions emerge about Bitcoin‘s prospective cycle bottom. Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered foresees a significant cycle low threshold for Bitcoin by 2025 at $59,000, despite current fluctuations. Even as the market faced substantial declines, Kendrick’s year-end projections for Bitcoin and Ethereum remain optimistic, targeting $100,000 and $4,000 respectively.
What Role Do ETF Outflows and IPOs Play?
The spate of volatility impacting the crypto market has been substantially driven by two factors: expanding outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and the monetary demands linked to the SpaceX IPO. Earlier, Bitcoin experienced a downturn to $59,375, illustrating a dramatic 53% fall from its peak of $126,000 in October.
“The end of the crypto winter is upon us, marking the beginning of a recovery period,” stated Kendrick in his latest analysis.
In the weeks following early May, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States witnessed outflows totaling over $5.72 billion. Investors have been notably divesting ETF holdings to gather capital for SpaceX’s market launch, a decision that has visibly affected liquidity levels.
SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, debuted on NASDAQ with shares launching at around $150, rapidly climbing to surpass the initial offering price significantly. This IPO has exerted notable pressure on liquidity within the crypto sector, potentially influencing market dynamics.
With the IPO phase entering its concluding stages, Kendrick suggests that such liquidity pressures may soon diminish, enhancing the prospects for influxes back into spot ETFs. He posits that this development could establish $59,000 as a robust support threshold for Bitcoin.
Could Global Tensions Alleviate?
A reduction in geopolitical conflicts might further bolster the market’s revival, Kendrick advises. Discussing possible agreements between the US and Iran, particularly within the G7 framework, could moderate oil prices—a scenario beneficial for the cryptocurrency market. Lower oil prices may relieve pressure on US bond yields, making the environment more conducive for crypto investments.
Currently, Brent crude stands at approximately $87 per barrel, whereas West Texas Intermediate hovers near $85. Speculations about a potential US-Iran deal surface, yet inconsistencies between public and previously agreed terms have been noted by former US President Donald Trump.
Emphasizing Ethereum’s short-term potential to surpass Bitcoin amid stabilization efforts, Kendrick expressed confidence in his year-end forecasts despite prevalent risks.
Kendrick lists three critical indicators for recognizing a market stabilizing point: significant Bitcoin acquisitions by major funds, a return to net positive daily US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and a continued decline in international oil prices. As his insights were shared, Bitcoin hovered just below the $64,000 mark.
