Investment management firm VanEck suggests that Bitcoin might be nearing an accumulation phase. This assertion comes as eight out of their twelve capitulation indicators are currently active as of mid-August. VanEck highlights that the ongoing market correction has lasted ten months since Bitcoin’s peak in October 2025.
What Do the Stress Indicators Show?
Indicators become active when they reach extreme levels within historical distribution, according to VanEck. Most of these indicators trigger when they drop into the lowest 15% of historical data. For market stress indicators showing upward trends, a 10% threshold is applied.
VanEck posits a possible turning point between September and November, should past cycles repeat. They emphasize, however, that this time frame should not be seen as a definitive Bitcoin price prediction.
Does Short-term Performance Offer Any Clarity?
Short-term statistical advantages could not be identified by VanEck’s analysis. In periods where 8 to 12 signals were active, Bitcoin yielded an average return of 12.8% over the next 90 days, below a base average of 15.2%.
Over 180 days, the average return increased to 32%, yet this still trailed behind the baseline of 36.3%. Greater strength was observed only in a one-year timeframe. VanEck attributes this result to a small number of market periods and says it alone cannot pinpoint a bottom.
VanEck, reiterating historical patterns, remarked that a turning point might occur, but it shouldn’t be interpreted as a conclusive price estimate.
- The accumulation phase may be due, as suggested by significant indicators.
- Market stress indicators are showing elevated activity.
- No short-term statistical edge was found, despite indicators being active.
- The potential cycle turnaround could happen between September and November, but it’s not a definitive forecast.
There was remarkable fund inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs over a recent 30-day span, with net inflows totaling $663 million. Though there was an outflow of $2.4 billion the prior month, the recent inflow hinted at recovery.
Spot-based funds in the U.S. saw a decrease of $385.2 million for the week ending August 14. Following this, demand surged, with $297.5 million and $189.3 million in inflows recorded on August 17 and 18, respectively, counterbalancing previous outflows.
Trading around $64,250 on August 19, Bitcoin exceeded VanEck’s reference price of $63,549. Coins held for over a year declined by 356,534 BTC in 30 days, now representing 59.1% of total supply. Long-term investors across all six age groups experienced reductions, with the largest decrease in the one to two-year coin holdings.
