Bitcoin witnessed a decline from around $87,500 on September 21 to a range between $83,000 and $84,000, coinciding with a strengthening U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, data indicates that the dollar’s impact on Bitcoin’s price movements remains restricted for now. Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, highlights the growth potential of the Bitcoin-based digital credit market, emphasizing that the key to success lies in disciplined management and robust financial structures.
Assessing the Dollar’s Influence on Bitcoin
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed approximately 2.6% since September 9, reaching 101.69 on Tuesday, marking its highest level in two months. Typically, a stronger dollar poses a constraint on assets priced in dollars, such as Bitcoin and gold.
The dollar’s role as a primary reserve and debt currency exacerbates this effect. When the dollar rises, the repayment burden of dollar-denominated debt increases, often leading to a reduction in funds allocated to riskier assets. Nonetheless, the relationship between Bitcoin and the dollar does not indicate a persistent or significant connection.
According to TradingView, the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the DXY has dropped to -0.41 over the last 90 trading days, the lowest since February 2023. This metric suggests a tendency for the two assets to move inversely. However, a determination coefficient of only 0.17 shows that the dollar index statistically accounts for just about 17% of Bitcoin’s daily return variability.
Over the last 30 days, the correlation stands at -0.45. However, this result is significantly influenced by the sessions on August 19 and September 3, when Bitcoin rose over 5% while the DXY fell. Excluding these days, the correlation drops to -0.19.
Long-term data also supports the weak association between the two. Since January 2020, the average 90-day correlation has been a mere -0.14, though it spiked to +0.22 in November 2024. Bitcoin shows no significant correlation with U.S. Treasury yields either, suggesting that its price movements are predominantly driven by unique factors.
Technically, the DXY has reentered above the Ichimoku cloud but has not yet breached the 101.80 resistance level. Breaking this threshold could end the sideways movement seen since May 2025 and accelerate the dollar’s ascent. Though such a shift might constrain Bitcoin’s upward mobility, current data reveals that the dollar is not a sole determinant.
Saylor: Management Quality Key to Digital Credit Growth
Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, extended his best wishes to Strive and all well-managed Bitcoin-based digital credit issuers. Saylor posits that both Strategy and Strive operate on the same platform: Bitcoin represents digital capital, while STRC and SATA symbolize digital credit, and MSTR and ASST denote digital equity.
The securities structures and decision-making processes of the two companies are independent. Saylor noted that companies would compete for investors’ capital allocations but could also jointly expand long-term market opportunities.
Citing SIFMA data, Saylor noted that the global equity market’s total value reached $157.8 trillion by 2025, with the balance of fixed-income debt instruments hitting $160.7 trillion. Just 0.1% of these markets equates to a substantial $160 billion in volume.
Saylor outlined three leverage points for model improvement. First, companies funding the acquisition of scarce Bitcoin could boost demand and improve asset-backed coverage. Second, more issuers offering digital credit products could enhance research, trading, and liquidity infrastructures, reducing credit spreads and funding costs by lowering the additional risk premium demanded by investors unfamiliar with the products. Lastly, the proliferation of companies proving the model’s viability across different market conditions could lead to broader acceptance of digital equity in the marketplace.
However, Saylor cautioned that Bitcoin purchases do not guarantee price increases, nor does Bitcoin inherently generate interest. Profit margins between long-term asset returns and financing costs must be maintained through disciplined management. An increase in the number of issuers does not automatically translate into higher valuations.
According to Saylor, model sustainability relies on solid capital structures, prudent liquidity management, transparent disclosures, and beneficial products. While weak issuers could undermine confidence in the entire category, reputable companies have the potential to attract funds that might not naturally gravitate toward this space by addressing institutional investors’ diversification needs.
